Friday, August 28, 2026
From X
Chris Camillo on X
@PostmodernRogue @fkon1u @DumbMoneyTV what exactly do you think is priced in? >37M launch-quarter units? >45M? >50M? what ARPU? “priced in” isn’t an argument without numbers. There is upside and downside. Been crushing $TTWO GTA trades since ’99. Always happy to compare notes.
PAA Research on X
DRAM sentiment cooled after Nvidia’s reported $160 billion quarter-on-quarter supply and purchase agreements, testing a crowded memory-chip trade.
SG on X
I know one company that won't be sad August is coming to an end $BURL https://t.co/uOtSFz7nCf
David Orr on X
Google, Amazon and Microsoft rose after the earnings beat, while lower-cost neocloud compute providers could offer stronger risk-adjusted returns.
David Orr on X
$SOXX $NVDA down since the big beat... sure looks like a news failure event. I think it'll be electricity bottlenecks that kill the AI hardware bubble. The hyperscalers controlling that bottleneck should be the biggest winner.
Chris Camillo on X
@Kcon2026 didn’t miss that. i was long calls going into $NVDA earnings. my comment was about other investors making outsized bets long or short based mostly on vibes.
David Orr on X
@taobanker $LULU's quality drop was like a bit worse every year, kind of hard to notice. And then all of a sudden...
SG on X
$FLR share count reduction is impressive. Another year or two at this clip could really transform the capital structure. https://t.co/H0a7syQHHb
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $105M
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 AMZN $2.8T
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6B
- Intrepid Capital 2Q26 GOOGL $4.2T
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $80B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $45B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 META $1.5T
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.7B
SK Hynix: Higher Revenue Than Micron, Cheaper Than Micron (Initiating Buy)
Making sense of Sandisk’s long-term financial model
Sandisk’s FY28-FY30 model relies on long-term NAND agreements holding near-80% gross-margin floors despite pricing 26-28% below current…
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries
Nvidia guided FY2028 revenue toward $700 billion, roughly 70% growth, while supply constraints and neocloud demand face concerns over…
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Danaher 2Q'26: Yet Another "Meh" Quarter
Danaher posted 3.0% core revenue growth in 2Q’26, with LTM adjusted EBITA flat at $7.1 billion since 2Q’24 despite a mid-20s earnings…
TSMC 2Q'26: Stratospheric Margins Amidst the AI Super Cycle
TSMC’s 2Q 2026 operating margin exceeded 60% as AI-driven demand for advanced chips pushed profitability beyond the prior cycle’s…
ASML 2Q'26: Time to Flex Pricing Power
ASML’s 2Q’26 commentary signals a shift from measured pricing toward flexing its chip-equipment pricing power.
Airbnb’s Cost of Market Creation and Regulatory Survival
Airbnb spent 1.1% of 2025 GBV on field operations and policy as regulatory costs persisted; New York’s short-term-rental crackdown cut…
WhatsApp's New Era
WhatsApp named CRED founder Kunal Shah to replace Will Cathcart after Meta bought a 20% CRED stake for $900 million, signaling a push to…
Defending the Enterprise Castle from the Model Layer
Microsoft urges enterprises to keep AI memory, evaluations and orchestration inside their tenant boundary, making frontier models…
Meta On the Offense!
Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 targets agentic enterprise work, backed by employee workflow data and 3,000 engineers building reinforcement-learning…
The Great Rotation: Long Live the Old Economy — Weekly Treasure Hunt #04
Vaca Muerta’s $36–45-per-barrel breakevens, Milei reforms and $17 billion infrastructure buildout underpin the bullish case for Vista…
My Biggest Position: A Monopoly Priced for Failure
A former value-investor darling, down 50%, pairs a monopoly with a recurring-revenue razor-and-blade business; debt paydown, margin…
Meta: 2Q26 Business Update
Meta's 2Q26 revenue rose 27%, but capex, depreciation and nascent cloud and AI ambitions raise margin and return risks as it maximizes…
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X accounts we follow
Every account on this site, hand-picked.
- Chris Camillo
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- Sahil Khetpal
Topics
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