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John Hempton's Newsletter
Everything we have picked from this writer, newest first.
earnings The last Bristol Myers' blog post was wrong on the core thesis
Ivonescimab plus chemotherapy extended median overall survival by 4.2 months versus Tevimbra plus chemotherapy in HARMONI-6, challenging…
John Hempton's Newsletter
balance sheets A non-consensus thesis: the forthcoming demise of Bristol Myers Squibb.
Bristol Myers Squibb’s bear case centers on patent-cliff revenue losses, debt, and failed drug investment after $28.3 billion of 2019–23…
John Hempton's Newsletter John Hempton's Newsletter macro 2026-05-24 macroSome Australian tax policy proposals
Australian tax proposals risk driving mobile tech and biotech capital offshore; a Scandinavian-style system would raise revenue with fewer…
John Hempton's Newsletter John Hempton's Newsletter earnings 2026-05-18 earningsBrambles - the pallet maintenance issue
Brambles cut earnings guidance after US repair-capacity constraints, raising questions about its earlier disclosure of 4 million excess…
John Hempton's Newsletter John Hempton's Newsletter corporate governance 2026-04-19 corporate governanceIf you want a pardon, try not to be associated with Hunter Biden
David Gentile received a Trump pardon after the GBP Capital fraud conviction, while co-defendant Jeffry Schneider remained imprisoned amid…
John Hempton's Newsletter John Hempton's Newsletter asia 2025-10-15 asiaIf I were Xi for a day
China's proposed response to U.S. tariffs includes doubled export taxes, selective IP repudiation and confiscation of American assets,…
John Hempton's Newsletter
crypto Bucket shops, crypto, and flash crashes
Offshore crypto exchanges can avoid funding leveraged altcoin trades by operating as bucket shops, then wipe out profitable clients through…
John Hempton's Newsletter John Hempton's Newsletter ai 2025-06-30 aiTrying to get access to Google's new agentic AI
Google’s A$205-a-month AI Ultra subscription advertised Project Mariner access, but Australians were excluded from the agentic AI trial.
John Hempton's Newsletter John Hempton's Newsletter earnings 2025-05-06 earningsWhen extend and pretend is a virtue
Upstart says longer repayment terms lifted Q1 debt-settlement acceptances 50%, but does not disclose delinquency changes or the number of…
John Hempton's Newsletter John Hempton's Newsletter asia 2024-11-16 asiaIndustrial and Commercial Bank of China
ICBC’s chairman describes embedding Chinese Communist Party leadership, anti-corruption campaigns and Xi Jinping Thought into governance at…
John Hempton's Newsletter
business models Brambles - some thoughts
Brambles’ CHEP pallet pool combines global network effects and strong returns, but its patchy history leaves the stock discounted despite…
John Hempton's Newsletter John Hempton's Newsletter advertising 2024-10-09 advertisingThinking aloud about Google remedies
Justice Department remedies could bar Google from using location data it cannot share, weakening targeted ads and traffic routing despite…
John Hempton's Newsletter
filings Some thoughts on the Andrew Left indictment
Andrew Left’s indictment turns on whether Citron knowingly made false or reckless claims to move stocks before trading; the DOJ faces a…
John Hempton's Newsletter
activism Hibbett – why did the management choose to sell – and should we accept?
Hibbett shareholders are urged to reject the sale at roughly 10× current earnings, or 5× forward earnings, despite management’s projections…
John Hempton's Newsletter John Hempton's Newsletter ai 2024-02-15 aiNvidia, Nano-X and the interpretation of 13F filings
Nvidia’s $380,000 Nano-X stake came from Zebra Medical Vision’s acquisition and is managed by another reporting person, undermining the 50%…
John Hempton's Newsletter
buybacks Hibbett - an informal stock note
Hibbett’s small-town sporting-goods chain and City Gear acquisition give it access to sneaker and streetwear demand; decades of growth and…
John Hempton's Newsletter John Hempton's Newsletter healthcare 2023-10-31 healthcareSarepta Risk and the FDA
Sarepta’s Exondys 51 approval despite a 12-patient trial frames FDA regulatory risk and a call to remove Commissioner Robert Califf.
John Hempton's Newsletter
healthcare Does anyone remember when Alnylam went up 50 percent in a day on a phase three result
Alnylam’s 2022 50% phase-three gain faces FDA advisory-panel scrutiny over its amyloidosis drug’s label extension.
John Hempton's Newsletter
hedge funds Purecycle and the good money after bad decision...
PureCycle’s largest shareholder, Sylebra Capital, keeps financing its delayed, over-budget plastic-recycling plant despite covenant…
John Hempton's Newsletter John Hempton's Newsletter activism 2023-08-07 activismWe can get some extra votes. Pity they are worthless and scumbags are in charge of governance.
Campari’s five-year loyalty plan grants five votes per share, letting its controlling shareholder sell stock while retaining control and…
John Hempton's Newsletter