Friday, August 28, 2026
From X
Chris Camillo on X
@PostmodernRogue @fkon1u @DumbMoneyTV what exactly do you think is priced in? >37M launch-quarter units? >45M? >50M? what ARPU? “priced in” isn’t an argument without numbers. There is upside and downside. Been crushing $TTWO GTA trades since ’99. Always happy to compare notes.
PAA Research on X
DRAM sentiment cooled after Nvidia’s reported $160 billion quarter-on-quarter supply and purchase agreements, testing a crowded memory-chip trade.
SG on X
I know one company that won't be sad August is coming to an end $BURL https://t.co/uOtSFz7nCf
David Orr on X
Google, Amazon and Microsoft rose after the earnings beat, while lower-cost neocloud compute providers could offer stronger risk-adjusted returns.
David Orr on X
$SOXX $NVDA down since the big beat... sure looks like a news failure event. I think it'll be electricity bottlenecks that kill the AI hardware bubble. The hyperscalers controlling that bottleneck should be the biggest winner.
Chris Camillo on X
@Kcon2026 didn’t miss that. i was long calls going into $NVDA earnings. my comment was about other investors making outsized bets long or short based mostly on vibes.
David Orr on X
@taobanker $LULU's quality drop was like a bit worse every year, kind of hard to notice. And then all of a sudden...
SG on X
$FLR share count reduction is impressive. Another year or two at this clip could really transform the capital structure. https://t.co/H0a7syQHHb
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $107M
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 AMZN $2.8T
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6B
- Intrepid Capital 2Q26 GOOGL $4.2T
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $81B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $45B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 META $1.5T
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.7B
SK Hynix: Higher Revenue Than Micron, Cheaper Than Micron (Initiating Buy)
Making sense of Sandisk’s long-term financial model
Sandisk’s FY28-FY30 model relies on long-term NAND agreements holding near-80% gross-margin floors despite pricing 26-28% below current…
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries
Nvidia guided FY2028 revenue toward $700 billion, roughly 70% growth, while supply constraints and neocloud demand face concerns over…
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Trying to get access to Google's new agentic AI
Google’s A$205-a-month AI Ultra subscription advertised Project Mariner access, but Australians were excluded from the agentic AI trial.
When extend and pretend is a virtue
Upstart says longer repayment terms lifted Q1 debt-settlement acceptances 50%, but does not disclose delinquency changes or the number of…
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
ICBC’s chairman describes embedding Chinese Communist Party leadership, anti-corruption campaigns and Xi Jinping Thought into governance at…
Thinking aloud about Google remedies
Justice Department remedies could bar Google from using location data it cannot share, weakening targeted ads and traffic routing despite…
Does anyone remember when Alnylam went up 50 percent in a day on a phase three result
Alnylam’s 2022 50% phase-three gain faces FDA advisory-panel scrutiny over its amyloidosis drug’s label extension.
We can get some extra votes. Pity they are worthless and scumbags are in charge of governance.
Campari’s five-year loyalty plan grants five votes per share, letting its controlling shareholder sell stock while retaining control and…
Too Many Cooks Spoil The Pot
Baron’s BARAX and BGAFX hold SpaceX at a $1.25 trillion valuation, creating a potential NAV uplift if its IPO prices higher.
Kazakhstan, Japan, and Trimming a Winner
Kaspi.kz’s 850 KZT ADS dividend establishes a roughly 9% yield after Hepsiburada spending; Japanese buyback disclosures test whether 0.61x…
Tis The (Earnings) Season
Argentine banks, tariff-exposed stocks and Customer’s Bancorp anchor an earnings-season watchlist after Milei’s election victory,…
Carving Up the TPU
Google’s TPUs give it vertically integrated AI training and inference economics as Anthropic and Meta consider adoption, challenging…
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