Friday, August 28, 2026
From X
Chris Camillo on X
@PostmodernRogue @fkon1u @DumbMoneyTV what exactly do you think is priced in? >37M launch-quarter units? >45M? >50M? what ARPU? “priced in” isn’t an argument without numbers. There is upside and downside. Been crushing $TTWO GTA trades since ’99. Always happy to compare notes.
PAA Research on X
DRAM sentiment cooled after Nvidia’s reported $160 billion quarter-on-quarter supply and purchase agreements, testing a crowded memory-chip trade.
SG on X
I know one company that won't be sad August is coming to an end $BURL https://t.co/uOtSFz7nCf
David Orr on X
Google, Amazon and Microsoft rose after the earnings beat, while lower-cost neocloud compute providers could offer stronger risk-adjusted returns.
David Orr on X
$SOXX $NVDA down since the big beat... sure looks like a news failure event. I think it'll be electricity bottlenecks that kill the AI hardware bubble. The hyperscalers controlling that bottleneck should be the biggest winner.
Chris Camillo on X
@Kcon2026 didn’t miss that. i was long calls going into $NVDA earnings. my comment was about other investors making outsized bets long or short based mostly on vibes.
David Orr on X
@taobanker $LULU's quality drop was like a bit worse every year, kind of hard to notice. And then all of a sudden...
SG on X
$FLR share count reduction is impressive. Another year or two at this clip could really transform the capital structure. https://t.co/H0a7syQHHb
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $107M
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 AMZN $2.8T
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6B
- Intrepid Capital 2Q26 GOOGL $4.2T
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $81B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $45B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 META $1.5T
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.7B
SK Hynix: Higher Revenue Than Micron, Cheaper Than Micron (Initiating Buy)
Making sense of Sandisk’s long-term financial model
Sandisk’s FY28-FY30 model relies on long-term NAND agreements holding near-80% gross-margin floors despite pricing 26-28% below current…
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries
Nvidia guided FY2028 revenue toward $700 billion, roughly 70% growth, while supply constraints and neocloud demand face concerns over…
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Copart, A Timeline-Based Assessment - ($CPRT)
Copart faces a near-term lift from pricier AV repairs and total losses, but shrinking accident volumes could eventually force its…
Workiva INC
Workiva, an enterprise software platform, trades at a reasonable valuation as it approaches its first profitable period since its 2008…
Permian Basin Q2 Update – Power, Water, Solid Waste, and Data Centers
GFL’s proposed acquisition of Secure follows 19% revenue growth at Secure and 14.8% EBITDA growth at GFL, with Permian produced-water and…
$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost
UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.
Private Credit's Clock is Ticking w/ Glenn Schorr & Ken Worthington | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 72
Glenn Schorr and Ken Worthington discuss risks in private-credit software loans, agentic AI at retail brokers, crypto use cases and bank…
Figma 2Q'26: Near-Term Re-acceleration vs. Long-Term Durability
Figma raised its 2026 revenue growth guide to 39%, but a roughly 1% sequential 3Q outlook and unchanged $125-135 million operating-income…
Alphabet Inc. ($GOOGL) - Deep Dive
Alphabet's Google Cloud swung from a $3.1 billion operating loss in 2021 to $13.9 billion profit in 2025 as Search revenue grew 13.2%.
[V, MA] The more things change, the more they stay the same
Visa and Mastercard have absorbed digital wallets and BNPL into their networks, using global merchant acceptance to turn supposed…
Accenture PLC
Accenture has been repriced as an AI loser despite its expected near-term benefit from AI adoption.
Shopify 2Q'26: Sustained Miraculous Growth
Shopify sustained 30% FX-neutral GMV growth in 2Q’26, reaching roughly 44% of Amazon’s retail GMV as international, POS and B2B volumes…
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