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Thursday, August 27, 2026

From X

@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

$QXO gang anyone have a current cap table, wanted to run some numbers but its hard to keep up with all the issuance/debt offerings.... Pro forma suggests there is around 1.1B shares outstanding? (will that include all the financing to get Topbuild closed (I believe so)? + around $8B in net debt (pro forma) So at $14 a share - that would be roughly $23B EV value? Anyone confirm this or tell me which pieces are wrong (for Kodiak, beacon and Topbuild) Roughly $2B EBITDA off their press release (probably up for debate, rates/economy, then need to look how much synergies might be backed into that) So 4x leveraged (means likely more shares need to get issued to de-risk especially with interest rate risks and transmission to demand) so 11.5x with mote dilution (likely).....getting close but not there yet - still think you need to wait for 10x or < Last and most important question does the math around Beacon change - 15x is meaty for a distributor multiple so unlikely they walk. But with the 45/55 split (is there floor conditions or will TopBuild eat that difference if/when they vote later this month (if not anyone know what the break fee is). Thanks in advance
@ActAccordingly 2 clicks

PAA Research on X

I call this the "LLOK" trade (Lower Leg of the K). This is a really interesting non-consensus thematic opportunity, dare I call it contrarian (if you're old enough to remember when that was a preferred approach to alpha generation). Investors have been quick to dismiss anything resembling a LLOK trade, but look what's happened in the past few weeks: $DLTR, $CASY, $CBRL, $PENN, $PRKS all massively outperforming in the past month. I'll include my beloved $CAKE in this group. Yes, some of that is factor rotation, but employment tailwinds for this consumer set might be better as a result of data center CAPEX/reindustrialization, and the "sell these names on gas prices" trade couldn't be hackneyed analysis. Finally, follow @TiberiusCapital, he's one of the best investors I know.

Investor Letters

All letters
LGCY · long 2026-05-29

Legacy Education

Legacy Education operates six California campuses offering post-secondary nursing, physician assistant and surgical education.

LGCY $134M
Value Investors Club 1 click
RGLD · long 2026-05-29

Royal Gold INC

Royal Gold, a $19 billion precious-metals royalty and streaming company, benefits from mine production without operating mines directly.

RGLD $22B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks
CC · long 2026-05-29

the chemours inc.

Chemours (CC) is presented as a long investment in its three-segment specialty chemicals business.

CC $2.4B
Value Investors Club 1 click
HGV · long 2026-05-29

Hilton Grand Vacations

Hilton Grand Vacations faces an inflection point in profitability growth and free cash flow generation.

HGV $3.4B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

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