Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Thursday, August 27, 2026
From X
PAA Research on X
WD-40’s post-earnings gap closed after a beat management failed to explain clearly, raising questions about the quarter’s upside.
PAA Research on X
Campbell Soup's leverage and weak capital allocation make a sale difficult, though a dividend cut could free $450 million of annual cash flow for deleveraging.
PAA Research on X
Various parts of the AI CAPEX trade ($MU, $SNDK, $COHR, $MRVL are down (-30%)-(-40%) in the past month, in what inning are we in for this sell-off?
PAA Research on X
Furniture stocks including BSET and ETD outperformed over three months, with real estate-adjusted near-zero enterprise values and earnings leverage to a housing recovery.
PAA Research on X
MTUM and SPMO momentum ETFs are selling off after SPMO's 100% three-year outperformance versus SPY, with September rebalances pending.
PAA Research on X
Hayward has held a $12 to $16 ascending trading channel for three years despite Pentair's blowup, sustaining a healthy valuation multiple.
PAA Research on X
Invesco’s S&P 500 Momentum ETF, SPMO, has outperformed the S&P 500 by 100% since September 2023 as momentum leadership intensified.
PAA Research on X
Qualcomm’s acquisition of Modular drew CEO Cristiano Amon’s Android or Linux comparison, while critics called for consistent earnings execution before higher expectations.
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $107M
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6B
- Intrepid Capital 2Q26 GOOGL $4.2T
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $81B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $41B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 META $1.5T
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.7B
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 ADBE $114B
ACIW 2026-08-27 ACI Worldwide: An Undercovered Payments Compounder Getting Better
SiliconBytes Insights 
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
MT 2026-08-27 ArcelorMittal: Regionalization Is Creating A Structurally Better Steel Company
Capital Connoisseur 
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
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Older Stories
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
Yet Another Value Podcast
The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville
The Monetary Matters Network
Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?
The Oak Bloke
AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman
$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
Yet Another Value PodcastTopics
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