Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries
Nvidia guided FY2028 revenue toward $700 billion, roughly 70% growth, while supply constraints and neocloud demand face concerns over hyperscaler capacity and rival chips.
Thursday, August 27, 2026
Aug 27 MT $56B ArcelorMittal: Regionalization Is Creating A Structurally Better Steel Company
Capital Connoisseur 3 clicks Aug 27 VRT $102B Vertiv: AI's Physical Bottleneck Is Expanding Its Value Per Megawatt
LL Insights 2 clicksFrom X
Rusholme Capital on X
Q2 2025 portfolio update added Meta and six Canadian names, sold eight holdings, and returned 6.6% versus the S&P 500's 10.6%.
Rusholme Capital on X
Software, semiconductors and financials look expensive, while CDW returned to revenue growth. High-ticket consumer goods and transport are weak, but travel and Canadian housing show strength.
catechwilliams on X
$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.
catechwilliams on X
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
Investor Letters
All letters- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $107M
- Intrepid Capital 2Q26 GOOGL $4.2T
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $81B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $45B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 META $1.5T
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.7B
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 ADBE $114B
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 ACA $7.1B
GM 2026-08-27 General Motors: The Billion Mile Moat
Muhammad Cheema 1 click
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…
The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville
Hyperscalers’ off-balance-sheet lease and purchase obligations rose from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, turning the AI buildout into…
Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?
HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed…
AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman argues the AI boom hinges on Anthropic and OpenAI’s importance to hyperscalers, while weighing software, CoreWeave and Cisco…
[scuttleslops] ZTS, APO, FISV, TTD, RELY
Zoetis’s U.S. companion-animal revenue fell 6% as dermatology competition drove rebates and discounts, pushing full-year net pricing to…
KGC 2026-08-27 Kinross Gold: The Buy Case Is Margin, Not Growth
The Bullionaire 3 clicksRoyal Gold INC
Royal Gold, a $19 billion precious-metals royalty and streaming company, benefits from mine production without operating mines directly.
RKLB 2026-08-26 Rocket Lab Is Becoming Much Bigger Than Neutron
Pythia Research 6 clicks KMI 2026-08-26 Kinder Morgan: The Consolidation Is An Opportunity Before The Next Leg Higher
Steven Fiorillo 3 clicks CBRS 2026-08-26 Sizing Up Cerebras Systems: Why Its Latency Moat Makes It A Buy For Aggressive Growth Investors
Star Investments 4 clicks WDS 2026-08-26 Woodside Energy: The $5 Billion Reset Helps, But I'm Not Buying Yet
High Alpha Professor 5 clicksArista Networks INC
Arista Networks, at about $150 per share, is a $190 billion data-center networking franchise generating $9.7 billion of LTM revenue with…
Sterling Infrastructure INC
Sterling Infrastructure short pairs STRL against EME and FIX, arguing data-center sitework contractors lack the margin upside available to…
TTMI 2026-08-25 TTM Technologies: Priced Like A Board Shop, Booked Like A Defense Prime
Jaden Mealy 2 clicks GEN 2026-08-25 Gen Digital: MoneyLion Opens A New Growth Channel At A Low Valuation
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