Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling after 2030.
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Aug 25 STNE $2.2B StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now
IWA Research 7 clicksFrom X
Broken Moats on X
Uber faces an existential autonomous-vehicle threat from Waymo, Tesla and Amazon, while Lucid deliveries cannot offset lower driver costs, price competition and rivals’ superior AI investment.
BDC on X
From $SNAP Q2 shareholder letter: In scheme of things, the stock barely budged. How much would $META or $AMZN be up if Zuck/Jassy had said the same exact thing? Hint: they would be up many multiples of $SNAP's entire market cap. https://t.co/8QeDQq1LFy
JabroniCoin.USD on X
UBS on $CENX generating nearly $1 bn in 2026 FCF (v ~$800m consensus) Post this week, that Midwest premium looks solid for 2026… so that volume ramp should translate into higher numbers in Q3 and Q4 https://t.co/dhrEiBFWFf
Chris Camillo on X
@sp3cul8r No. Been a bit since I’ve thought deeply about the short-term risk/reward on $NVDA.
Chris Camillo on X
Too many of you are revving up to make an outsized bet on $NVDA earnings based mostly on vibes. Conviction without an information edge is just confidence dressed up as research.
BDC on X
$xgn is our largest position. Had a great call with mgmt, who I think is world class. not advice, just candor on what we own. https://t.co/z57ubc1dru
mavix on X
Will be interesting to finally see the first look of the new Shelly Camera! $SLYG https://t.co/dWIQfPA150
Maj Soueidan on X
NSYS trades near book on data-center, defense and medical-device growth, while USIO is a payment-processing turnaround backed by several investors.
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $135M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $107M
- Intrepid Capital 2Q 2026
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $81B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $45B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 META $1.5T
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.7B
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 ADBE $114B
SBLK 2026-08-25 Star Bulk Carriers: You Don't Need The Record Quarter
Kevin Avroutskii 4 clicks WLDN 2026-08-25 Willdan Group: The Q2 Beat-And-Raise Confirms The Inflection
Miletus Research 3 clicks
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
ZETA 2026-08-19 Zeta Global's AI Story Just Became Measurable (Rating Downgrade)
Alpha Line 1 click QNT 2026-08-19 Quantinuum: Trapped-Ion Quantum Computing Looks To Break Out Of The Quantum Silo
Marc Gerstein 
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al’s wartime near-monopoly has produced net cash, owned aircraft and a 2x EBITDA valuation, while regulatory obligations, customer float…
Instacart’s Unit Economics, and Implications for DoorDash
Instacart’s per-order unit economics provide a benchmark for assessing DoorDash’s LTM profitability and operating model.
NET Power Inc
NET Power (NPWR) is a microcap pursuing behind-the-meter power projects for data centers.
Perfect CORP
Perfect Corp., a Taiwan-based beauty-tech microcap SPAC, trades below net cash despite sales growth after falling from a brief $2 billion…
Doordash INC
DoorDash holds roughly 60% U.S. market share in on-demand restaurant logistics, underpinning a long thesis on its defensible delivery…
Airbnb Model Update (2026)
Airbnb shares have risen about 50% since October 2025, prompting a revised 2026 model and return assumptions at the current price.
Leef Brands INC
LEEF Brands, California’s largest cannabis extract manufacturer, supplies distillate, live resin and rosin to leading California brands.
Adobe INC
Adobe's dual network effects and platform entrenchment make AI fears a buying opportunity for the software compounder.
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