Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling after 2030.
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Aug 25 STNE $2.2B StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now
IWA Research 7 clicksFrom X
Broken Moats on X
Uber faces an existential autonomous-vehicle threat from Waymo, Tesla and Amazon, while Lucid deliveries cannot offset lower driver costs, price competition and rivals’ superior AI investment.
BDC on X
From $SNAP Q2 shareholder letter: In scheme of things, the stock barely budged. How much would $META or $AMZN be up if Zuck/Jassy had said the same exact thing? Hint: they would be up many multiples of $SNAP's entire market cap. https://t.co/8QeDQq1LFy
JabroniCoin.USD on X
UBS on $CENX generating nearly $1 bn in 2026 FCF (v ~$800m consensus) Post this week, that Midwest premium looks solid for 2026… so that volume ramp should translate into higher numbers in Q3 and Q4 https://t.co/dhrEiBFWFf
Chris Camillo on X
@sp3cul8r No. Been a bit since I’ve thought deeply about the short-term risk/reward on $NVDA.
Chris Camillo on X
Too many of you are revving up to make an outsized bet on $NVDA earnings based mostly on vibes. Conviction without an information edge is just confidence dressed up as research.
BDC on X
$xgn is our largest position. Had a great call with mgmt, who I think is world class. not advice, just candor on what we own. https://t.co/z57ubc1dru
mavix on X
Will be interesting to finally see the first look of the new Shelly Camera! $SLYG https://t.co/dWIQfPA150
Maj Soueidan on X
NSYS trades near book on data-center, defense and medical-device growth, while USIO is a payment-processing turnaround backed by several investors.
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $135M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $107M
- Intrepid Capital 2Q 2026
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $81B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $45B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 META $1.5T
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.7B
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 ADBE $114B
SBLK 2026-08-25 Star Bulk Carriers: You Don't Need The Record Quarter
Kevin Avroutskii 4 clicks WLDN 2026-08-25 Willdan Group: The Q2 Beat-And-Raise Confirms The Inflection
Miletus Research 3 clicks
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
Braemar Hotels & Resorts: Internalizing Management
Braemar Hotels & Resorts is internalizing its management.
Investcorp Credit Management BDC: Visiting the Private Credit Garbage Bin
Investcorp Credit Management BDC is framed as a troubled corner of private credit.
SBM – capital flight triggers another all-time high
SBM, Monaco’s largest company, reaches another all-time high as capital flows back to Europe and boosts the Principality’s property-heavy…
Theravance Biopharma: Failed Phase 3 Trial, Strategic Review
Theravance Biopharma began a strategic review after a failed Phase 3 trial.
Braemar Hotels & Resorts: HST Four Seasons Sale, Updated Thoughts
Braemar Hotels & Resorts’ Four Seasons sale prompts updated views on HST.
Green Dot: Creating a Standalone BaaS Bank
Green Dot creates a standalone banking-as-a-service bank.
Golden Entertainment: PropCo OpCo Split, Insufficient MBO Offer
Golden Entertainment’s PropCo-OpCo split follows an insufficient management buyout offer.
Sotherly Hotels: Buyout, Preferred Share Conversion Arbitrage
Sotherly Hotels buyout creates a preferred-share conversion arbitrage opportunity.
Braemar Hotels & Resort: Gross Asset Management Contract, Initiated Sales Process
Braemar Hotels & Resorts initiated a sales process and faces a gross asset management contract.
180 Degree Capital: Merger w/ Mount Logan Capital, Tender Offer, Questions Remain
180 Degree Capital plans to merge with Mount Logan Capital and launch a tender offer, leaving open questions around the transaction.
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