Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling after 2030.
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Aug 25 STNE $2.3B StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now
IWA Research Aug 25 SBLK $3.4B Star Bulk Carriers: You Don't Need The Record Quarter
Kevin Avroutskii From X
catechwilliams on X
$GMS Ray Jay Conf right now. Tracking well ahead of recent guide—new larger wins, wallboard prices +MSD last 2 wks, accel share gains, hi margin complimentary biz organically 2x in 3 yrs. 10x P/E vs peers at 15-20x (BLDR, BLD, IBP). Long runway for growth w strong balance sheet.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW It appears DOJ and SEC are investigating for Foreign Corrupt Practices Act violations in Mexico. Could result in fines, revocation of FDA license to distribute in US. Shocking no one is considering this existential risk. https://t.co/Icgbfgjn4a
catechwilliams on X
$CART Moved forward its lock-up expiration date to 2/16 (Thursday) from the original 3/19. >65% of the shares will be eligible for sale. COO leaving, just announced a restructuring w ambitious guidance. Almost certainly did so to support the stock in advance of a secondary.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT Est $50-70M revenue project. 4 jumbotrons, 5 ribbons + software contract for 2 stadiums. https://t.co/ANVOiAiZHn
catechwilliams on X
Calavo Growers faces an expanded DOJ and SEC FCPA investigation into its Mexico operations, with potential fines, criminal charges and customer losses cited as material risks.
catechwilliams on X
Delta expanded its free Digital ID program into Clear’s core markets, intensifying competitive pressure on $YOU’s airport identity-verification service.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW Trainwreck coming--Delayed filing (again) due to issues w internal controls. Potential restatement? CEO has a history of playing games. Commodity business deteriorating due to competition. Desperately trying to sell-off assets.
catechwilliams on X
$YOU sales growth in light blue, Members in orange vs QTD web traffic. Dotted section is Q4 w consensus sales and member growth. https://t.co/NcihE7pbyD
Investor Letters
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WLDN 2026-08-25 Willdan Group: The Q2 Beat-And-Raise Confirms The Inflection
Miletus Research 
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…
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