Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling after 2030.
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
23h ago STNE $2.3B StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now
IWA Research 24h ago SBLK $3.4B Star Bulk Carriers: You Don't Need The Record Quarter
Kevin Avroutskii From X
Broken Moats on X
Uber faces an existential autonomous-vehicle threat from Waymo, Tesla and Amazon, while Lucid deliveries cannot offset lower driver costs, price competition and rivals’ superior AI investment.
Broken Moats on X
Target trades at 17x next-year earnings before net debt, with earnings expected to shrink amid weak growth, boycott pressure and renewed controversy over a costume.
Broken Moats on X
U-Haul faces rising insurance and liability costs as trucking brokers face greater exposure, though consumer pricing power may cushion margins.
Broken Moats on X
The July-to-current rotation reflects short covering and an unwind of long semiconductor trades, with recent AI laggard rallies vulnerable as SaaS earnings approach.
Broken Moats on X
Zillow faces commission-model disruption, rental competition and MLS exclusivity litigation that could weaken its home-search audience and advertising revenue.
Broken Moats on X
SUJA's collapsed IPO masks years of negative free cash flow, high debt and a capital-intensive prebiotic soda push, while sponsor ownership creates lockup risk.
Broken Moats on X
Walmart plans major late-Q2 price investments, pressuring Target’s traffic, margins and valuation as consumers tighten spending.
Broken Moats on X
$mrna secondary coming in 21.05 minutes
Investor Letters
All letters
TTMI 2026-08-25 TTM Technologies: Priced Like A Board Shop, Booked Like A Defense Prime
Jaden Mealy 
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…
The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville
Hyperscalers’ off-balance-sheet lease and purchase obligations rose from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, turning the AI buildout into…
Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?
HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed…
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AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap
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