TFPM 2026-08-22 Triple Flag Precious Metals: Ravenswood Turns Optionality Into Duration
Capital Connoisseur Saturday, August 22, 2026
TFPM 2026-08-22 Capital Connoisseur Aug 22 UUUU $3.7B Energy Fuels: The Largest Combined Uranium And Rare Earth Company In North America
Joseph L. Shaefer Aug 22 LLY $1.2T Eli Lilly: Shaking Off Competition From The Dethroned Novo Nordisk
JR Research From X
catechwilliams on X
$OII Niche leader in subsea robotics at 12x P/E. Offshore rig count accelerating (70% share), A&D growing DD, new autonomous tech a major growth driver in other end markets (lifts, etc). Investor day next week will showcase products and new LT targets. >50% NTM upside, IMO.
catechwilliams on X
SRS is a private-equity rollup of landscaping, pool and roofing distributors, lacking exclusive supplier relationships and serving smaller homebuilders.
catechwilliams on X
$GMS Underfollowed building products distributor, HSD growth, favorable mix shift/ margin, tracking to beat estimates, trading at 10x EPS, 7x EBITDA. Peers at >50% higher multiples. $HD just acquired lower quality peer SRS for 17x EBITDA. GMS = $240 or +150% at that multiple.
catechwilliams on X
$GMS Ray Jay Conf right now. Tracking well ahead of recent guide—new larger wins, wallboard prices +MSD last 2 wks, accel share gains, hi margin complimentary biz organically 2x in 3 yrs. 10x P/E vs peers at 15-20x (BLDR, BLD, IBP). Long runway for growth w strong balance sheet.
catechwilliams on X
$CART Moved forward its lock-up expiration date to 2/16 (Thursday) from the original 3/19. >65% of the shares will be eligible for sale. COO leaving, just announced a restructuring w ambitious guidance. Almost certainly did so to support the stock in advance of a secondary.
catechwilliams on X
Delta expanded its free Digital ID program into Clear’s core markets, intensifying competitive pressure on $YOU’s airport identity-verification service.
catechwilliams on X
$YOU sales growth in light blue, Members in orange vs QTD web traffic. Dotted section is Q4 w consensus sales and member growth. https://t.co/NcihE7pbyD
catechwilliams on X
$YOU Clear supervisor at JFK said they’ve experienced “a surge in new sign-ups from pre-Thanksgiving through the Christmas travel period.” Similarweb web traffic to their site shows a large acceleration in visits as well suggesting a potentially large Q4 earnings beat.
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital second quarter
- Intrepid Capital 2Q 2026 +6.6%
- First Eagle Investments 3Q 2025 +9.2%
- Palm Harbour Capital third quarter
- Bireme Capital 2Q22 -1.4%
- Bireme Capital first five months of 2023 +8.0%
- Polaris Capital Management FIRST QUARTER 2026 +5.1%
- Polaris Capital Management SECOND QUARTER 2026 +12.3%
The Non-linear Economics of Grocery Delivery Basket
Instacart’s larger grocery baskets create disproportionately better delivery economics than DoorDash’s, making half the basket size worth…
Walmart’s Evolution
Walmart says Medicare Maximum Fair Price rules will cut FY27 US comps by 125 basis points, while pharmacy margins and prescription volumes…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
Instacart’s Unit Economics, and Implications for DoorDash
Instacart’s per-order unit economics provide a benchmark for assessing DoorDash’s LTM profitability and operating model.
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…
The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville
Hyperscalers’ off-balance-sheet lease and purchase obligations rose from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, turning the AI buildout into…
Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?
HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed…
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Older Stories
AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman
$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
Yet Another Value Podcast
Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?
Bristlemoon Capital ZTS 2026-08-13[scuttleslops] ZTS, APO, FISV, TTD, RELY
scuttleblurb
The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Copart, A Timeline-Based Assessment - ($CPRT)
Bearhold ResearchTopics
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