LLY 2026-08-22 Eli Lilly: Shaking Off Competition From The Dethroned Novo Nordisk
JR Research Saturday, August 22, 2026
LLY 2026-08-22 JR Research 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
catechwilliams on X
$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.
catechwilliams on X
Calavo Growers faces falling Mexican avocado imports after a USDA corruption crackdown, while South American suppliers gain share. Sales volume fell 13% last quarter.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Earnings on 8/5, expectations & stock disconnected from reality. Suppliers ($CSCO – 50% of product sales), competitors & customers all reporting sharp sales declines. Non-event PR today re a service they’ve been offering for 3 yrs is pumping stock; suggests mgmt is grasping
Investor Letters
All letters- Intrepid Capital 2Q 2026 +6.6%
- First Eagle Investments 3Q 2025 +9.2%
- Palm Harbour Capital third quarter
- Bireme Capital 2Q22 -1.4%
- Bireme Capital first five months of 2023 +8.0%
- Polaris Capital Management FIRST QUARTER 2026 +5.1%
- Polaris Capital Management SECOND QUARTER 2026 +12.3%
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 +3.2%
DKS 2026-08-22 DICK'S Sporting Goods Stock Is Hanging On By A Thread But Looks Like A Buy Ahead Of Q2 Earnings
Mike Arnold 
Walmart’s Evolution
Walmart says Medicare Maximum Fair Price rules will cut FY27 US comps by 125 basis points, while pharmacy margins and prescription volumes…
Instacart’s Unit Economics, and Implications for DoorDash
Instacart’s per-order unit economics provide a benchmark for assessing DoorDash’s LTM profitability and operating model.
Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…
The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville
Hyperscalers’ off-balance-sheet lease and purchase obligations rose from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, turning the AI buildout into…
Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?
HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed…
AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap
Steve Eisman argues the AI boom hinges on Anthropic and OpenAI’s importance to hyperscalers, while weighing software, CoreWeave and Cisco…
[scuttleslops] ZTS, APO, FISV, TTD, RELY
Zoetis’s U.S. companion-animal revenue fell 6% as dermatology competition drove rebates and discounts, pushing full-year net pricing to…
The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Copart, A Timeline-Based Assessment - ($CPRT)
Copart faces a near-term lift from pricier AV repairs and total losses, but shrinking accident volumes could eventually force its…
The writers we follow
Every source on this site, hand-picked.
- Seeking Alpha
- Raging Capital Ventures
- David Orr
- Chris Camillo
- MBI Deep Dives
- BDC
- Triple S Special Situations Investing
- Connor Haley
- Ian Bezek
- Timyan Bank Alert
- AltayCap
- Yet Another Value Podcast
- Yet Another Value Blog
- Nat Stewart
- scuttleblurb
- The Oak Bloke
- Mike
- mavix
- JabroniCoin.USD
- The Monetary Matters Network
- Steve Eisman
- Tim Eriksen
- Bristlemoon Capital
- Bearhold Research
- 310 Value’s Newsletter
- marginofdanger
- The Value Road
- Capital Employed
- Speedwell Memos
- Psyop Capital
- Wolf's Substack
- Laughing Water Capital
- The Mikro Kap
- catechwilliams
- Treasure Hunting
- Porter Collins
- Clark Street Value
- Cluseau Research
- John Hempton's Newsletter
- Undervalued Shares
- Value Investors Club
- smallvalue.
- Maius Partners
- Multibagger Monitor
- Altay Capital - Mostly Value Investing
- Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
- Citrini Research
- Rusholme Capital
- Hunterbrook No stories
- Odds on Open No stories
- Sunday's Idea Brunch No stories
Older Stories
Permian Basin Q2 Update – Power, Water, Solid Waste, and Data Centers
310 Value’s Newsletter
Private Credit's Clock is Ticking w/ Glenn Schorr & Ken Worthington | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 72
Steve Eisman
Alphabet Inc. ($GOOGL) - Deep Dive
Bearhold Research
[V, MA] The more things change, the more they stay the same
scuttleblurb
SpaceX Disappoints, AI's Free Cash Flow Shrinks, Meta Struggles | The Weekly Wrap
Steve EismanTopics
Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.
