Friday, August 21, 2026

PTLO 2026-08-20

Portillo's: Guidance Cut Confirms It's Cheap For A Reason

PTLO $378M

KC Research Aug 20

Aug 21 SOXX $1.4B

SOXX: Growth And Profitability May Be Peaking

Mauro Caversazzi

Walmart’s Evolution

WMT $826B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 21

From X

@catechwilliams Feb 11

catechwilliams on X

$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.

@catechwilliams Feb 5

catechwilliams on X

$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.

@catechwilliams Dec 19

catechwilliams on X

$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s

@catechwilliams Nov 26

catechwilliams on X

$CVGW Mexico tariffs likely a negotiating tactic but if enacted would be catastrophic for $CVGW which sources >90% of its avocados from MX. A 25% premium would render MX avocados uncompetitive, drive sourcing of the commodity to South American producers. $CVGW has 0 SA presence.

@catechwilliams Nov 15

catechwilliams on X

$CVGW. Another red flag. CFO departing after just 2 years w CEO's old buddy as replacement. Massively over-earnings w volumes continuing to decline from lost customers and margins reverting lower.

@catechwilliams Nov 13

catechwilliams on X

@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.

@catechwilliams Nov 13

catechwilliams on X

$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.

@catechwilliams Oct 9

catechwilliams on X

$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.