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Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey

Wednesday, August 19, 2026

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028 profit.

The Oak Bloke Aug 19

Airbnb Model Update (2026)

MBI Deep Dives Aug 19

Jumia

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 18

From X

@BlueDuckCap Aug 6

BDC on X

Outstanding results from $STLN (formerly $TOI) https://t.co/csecGWhVFe

@AltayCapital Aug 5

AltayCap on X

Megachips Corp 6875.T looking interesting given the +30% move on $SITM after earnings+forecast. Megachips owns more than its marketcap worth of SITM. (no debt, net cash). They've done some real buybacks recently too! Core biz is meh. Megachips is about ~¥140bn mcap.

@BlueDuckCap Aug 5

BDC on X

ESPN remains a disaster for $DIS https://t.co/IHc4sav9Et

@BlueDuckCap Aug 4

BDC on X

Really starting to like this $XGN mgmt team.

@BlueDuckCap Aug 3

BDC on X

Neuronetics, $STIM, gains backing from its largest shareholder and an activist as new management pursues a turnaround, with shareholder board nominations focused on maximizing equity value.

@orrdavid Aug 3

David Orr on X

@Biohazard3737 I was leaning way more great bet for Citadel before today's $SOXX action. Opinion will change again fast from here... if $SOXX randomly nukes 10% in a few days though, yikes.

@orrdavid Aug 3

David Orr on X

Citadel’s semiconductor bet depends on whether SOXX’s drop is technical or reflects weakening AI-chip fundamentals, with forced selling and redemptions shaping the near-term exit.

@orrdavid Aug 2

David Orr on X

I give it 50%+ chance that $BTC bitcoin trades for under $1k by 2032, probably a bit sooner.

Investor Letters

Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN

IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 18

$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital

Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 17

Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge

DoorDash’s integrated autonomous-delivery strategy contrasts with Uber’s 2026 divestment of Serve Robotics, its former delivery-robot…

DASH $99BSERV $405M

MBI Deep Dives Aug 17

Stock Trade Compilation Diez

E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…

SSP $305MMNRO $436M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 17

The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville

Hyperscalers’ off-balance-sheet lease and purchase obligations rose from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, turning the AI buildout into…

GOOGL $4.2TMETA $1.4T

The Monetary Matters Network Aug 16

Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?

HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed…

The Oak Bloke Aug 16

AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman argues the AI boom hinges on Anthropic and OpenAI’s importance to hyperscalers, while weighing software, CoreWeave and Cisco…

MSFT $3.6TAMZN $2.8T

Steve Eisman Aug 14

$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management

DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 14

The AI Compute Squeeze

CoreWeave and Nebius cite AI compute shortages and higher-priced GPU renewals, but older-chip utilization and depreciation vary across…

CRWV $49BNBIS $61B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 14

Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?

Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…

M $6.1BKSS $2B

Bristlemoon Capital Aug 13

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[scuttleslops] ZTS, APO, FISV, TTD, RELY

scuttleblurb Aug 13

The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Copart, A Timeline-Based Assessment - ($CPRT)

Bearhold Research Aug 13

Permian Basin Q2 Update – Power, Water, Solid Waste, and Data Centers

310 Value’s Newsletter Aug 12

Entravision Q2 Notes

The Value Road Aug 11

$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 11

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