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Chris Camillo on X
@ryanTesling @elliotrades worry isn’t something i do often. a rate hike is a known risk investors won’t like short term, but it changes nothing about my larger $AMZN thesis.
Ian Bezek on X
@davey_juice @ThainRos $EWZ might go lower. I don't have a strong opinion on where big components like Vale and Petrobras go, could be down more. I think $INTR and $NU will keep growing fast enough to offset macro jitters.
Chris Camillo on X
@elliotrades $AMZN
Ian Bezek on X
Nubank and Inter face Brazilian election risk as Lula is expected to win despite stronger polling for Flavio.
Lee Roach on X
Rayonier, $RYN, carries a $7.4 billion enterprise value and four million acres, implying $1,817 per acre plus a dividend.
Chris Camillo on X
@Freedom2Fart not a swing trader. and not that it matters, but the $AMZN trade in question was a one day options trade into expiration. fully exited.
marginofdanger on X
Horizon Technology Finance, $LIEN, trades at $10.20 versus $13.26 NAV and yields 13.3% as its all-stock REFI deal nearly doubles assets to about $800 million.
marginofdanger on X
Sachem Capital trades at $10.20 versus $13.26 NAV and yields 13.3%; its all-stock REFI deal will double assets above $600 million, concentrated in cannabis credit.
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $136M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $105M
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ZEG $5B
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 AMZN $2.8T
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6B
- Intrepid Capital 2Q26 GOOGL $4.2T
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $80B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $45B
Veeva 2Q’26: “SaaSpocalypse” Cancelled
Veeva beat its $905 million revenue guide with $928 million, up 17.6%, while subscription growth accelerated and GAAP EBIT margin reached…
Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive
Microsoft’s AI data-center buildout lifted annual CapEx from $5.5 billion in FY2014 to $115.9 billion in FY2026, resetting free-cash-flow…
Meta Buys Away its Distraction at Minimal Cost
Meta’s $18 billion teen-addiction settlement makes $5.3 billion contingent on YouTube and TikTok adopting matching restrictions, while…
Making sense of Sandisk’s long-term financial model
Sandisk’s FY28-FY30 model relies on long-term NAND agreements holding near-80% gross-margin floors despite pricing 26-28% below current…
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)
Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…
Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries
Nvidia guided FY2028 revenue toward $700 billion, roughly 70% growth, while supply constraints and neocloud demand face concerns over…
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
The last Bristol Myers' blog post was wrong on the core thesis
Ivonescimab plus chemotherapy extended median overall survival by 4.2 months versus Tevimbra plus chemotherapy in HARMONI-6, challenging…
A non-consensus thesis: the forthcoming demise of Bristol Myers Squibb.
Bristol Myers Squibb’s bear case centers on patent-cliff revenue losses, debt, and failed drug investment after $28.3 billion of 2019–23…
Trying to get access to Google's new agentic AI
Google’s A$205-a-month AI Ultra subscription advertised Project Mariner access, but Australians were excluded from the agentic AI trial.
When extend and pretend is a virtue
Upstart says longer repayment terms lifted Q1 debt-settlement acceptances 50%, but does not disclose delinquency changes or the number of…
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
ICBC’s chairman describes embedding Chinese Communist Party leadership, anti-corruption campaigns and Xi Jinping Thought into governance at…
Thinking aloud about Google remedies
Justice Department remedies could bar Google from using location data it cannot share, weakening targeted ads and traffic routing despite…
Nvidia, Nano-X and the interpretation of 13F filings
Nvidia’s $380,000 Nano-X stake came from Zebra Medical Vision’s acquisition and is managed by another reporting person, undermining the 50%…
Sarepta Risk and the FDA
Sarepta’s Exondys 51 approval despite a 12-patient trial frames FDA regulatory risk and a call to remove Commissioner Robert Califf.
Does anyone remember when Alnylam went up 50 percent in a day on a phase three result
Alnylam’s 2022 50% phase-three gain faces FDA advisory-panel scrutiny over its amyloidosis drug’s label extension.
Purecycle and the good money after bad decision...
PureCycle’s largest shareholder, Sylebra Capital, keeps financing its delayed, over-budget plastic-recycling plant despite covenant…
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